In the Money

The River

From In The Money: Strategies for Winning Texas Hold'em Cash Games
by Antonio "the Magician" Esfandiari

Okay, so you made it to the river. All the cards are on the table. There is no more chance for improvement. There is one more round of betting to get to before you get to the showdown. What are the considerations here?

First, do you have the best hand here? If you think you have the best hand, then the goal is to maximize your profit. You want to value-bet. If you are first to act, then you should typically bet out. In no-limit play, you will want to bet the amount that you think your opponent will likely call. What that amount is will depend on the read of your opponent. An experienced opponent may actually call a bigger bet than a smaller one, since he may put you on a steal with the bigger bet. The only time you would not want to bet out on the river with the best hand is if you are fairly certain your opponent will bet if you check to him. If that is the case, then go ahead and check-raise in order to extract an extra bet from your opponent.

If you are last to act with the best hand, then your only question is how much to bet or raise. Whether your opponent checks or bets, you need to bet or raise the amount that your opponent is likely to call.

Now let’s look at what you should do if you are fairly certain you do not have the best hand. If you do not have the best hand, then your analysis is squarely on your opponent(s). Do you think any of them have a hand? If yes, then check and fold to any bet. If not, then you have to look at both the size of the pot and the nature of your opponents. If the pot is sizable, then it may be worth maneuvering for it. You then have to ask yourself if you can get your opponent to fold. If you are up against more than one opponent, it will be much more difficult to get everyone to fold. If you are up against a single opponent, then your read of him becomes critical. Did he miss his draw on the river? How aggressive is he? Will he fold to any sign of strength? If your opponent is the type to call down to the river any drawing hand and then fold if he misses, then by all means attack him. If he is a tough opponent who knows you will try to steal the pot and will fight back, then do not waste your money. Save those chips for a more opportune time.

The biggest decision you will ever face on the river comes when you have a hand but face a big bet from an opponent. You have a strong hand, but not the nuts, and all of a sudden you’re facing an all-in bet. In fact, you were trying to figure out how to extract the most money from your opponent when he pushes in on you. What do you do? Well, before we look at some specific examples, let me emphasize an extremely important point. In no-limit play, the great majority of the time that a player makes a huge bet or raise on the river, he has the goods. If you are torn between calling and folding, it is almost always correct to fold. Remember from chapter 2 that the best way to make money is to fold. This is just as true on the river as it is preflop. You do not want to call off all of your chips with a strong but losing hand. Save those chips when you can be the one to exert the pressure. In no-limit games, you want to be the hunter, not the hunted.

Let’s look at a sample hand. You’re playing $10–$20 No Limit Hold ’Em and open-raise to $60 from early position with pocket queens. You get one caller, an aggressive player in late position. The flop comes Qd-Jd-3d. Bingo. You have hit top set, but the board is all diamonds. Since you do not slow-play sets (especially with all diamonds on board), you bet out $100 into the $150 pot. Your opponent calls. The turn brings a harmless 6c.

With the pot now at $350, you bet out $300. Again, your opponent calls. The river brings the 9h. The pot is now $950.You bet $800 and your opponent raises all-in. It will cost you $3,400 more to call. Even though you have a strong hand, your opponent in all likelihood has a flush. Even though this opponent is aggressive, he is not stupid. If he was going to bluff, you would have expected him to make a move on the turn. This looks like a classic trap, and he may have been slow-playing the nut flush from the flop. Cut your losses, save your money, and wait for a better opportunity.

Once you see the power of making big bets or raises on the river, you can see the potential to make big bluffs as well. In no-limit play, you have the power to do that, and it can be an extremely effective move. If you are going to try this, though, a few words of caution. First, make sure you try it on the right opponent. Do not try it on a player who is going to call with any made hand. Use it against more experienced players. Do not overuse it. This is a powerful weapon that should be used sparingly if at all.

The move is extremely risky. Even if you can get away with a bluff, there is always the chance that you are up against a monster hand. Finally, don’t waste a significant part of your bankroll on such a move. You never want to bet (or call for that matter) an amount that will leave you crippled unless you are sure you have the winning hand.